Ice Cold Stove or Pennyball?
It’s December 28th. It’s December 28th and we are still without major free agent movement in Major League Baseball. As of today, the highest ranked player on Fangraphs’ Top 50 free agents (excluding those that resigned on Qualifying Offers) that has signed is Trevor May. The impending signing of Ha-seong Kim will soon best this and give us our first top-10 signing, but Kim’s case is a different one as he transitions from playing in Korea to the states and navigates a posting system (which warrants its own post at some point). We’re in an offseason where we’ve celebrated signings like Hunter Renfroe and Michael Wacha.
I should say, I like Trevor May. I think he’s a great signing by the Mets. As is Hunter Renfroe by the Red Sox. The trade market has been moderately active this winter as well, with Lance Lynn heading to Chicago, Josh Bell heading to DC, and Blake Snell heading to San Diego. But this activity on the trade market is perhaps more indicative of the economic uncertainty in baseball and structural competitive problems than it is of an active and healthy market.
The Snell trade in particular is scary. The AL Champion Tampa Bay Rays, who were 2 wins away from being able to hoist an actual banner, found it more valuable to offload their ace than pay him $10M+ next year. The Rays felt that they can compete just fine without a beloved star player. Why pay for Blake Snell when we have a pretty decent shot to win anyway without him? “Compete just fine,” “pretty decent,” hmmm?
Still, the public sits here and praises the Rays and the Rays-ification of the game. “Trust the Process” has gone from belief in a rebuild to the game itself. Think about the language we use to describe the Rays and Rays-like moves: scrappy, smart, underrated. But what does that mean? It’s the emphasis on a framework that consistently undercuts talent, refuses to compensate it and build progressively, and instead maintains a minimally competitive roster that pretends to be competent.
Taking this thread back and applying it to the offseason hot stove at hand, why pay for Trevor Bauer? or Marcus Semien? or JT Realmuto? If none of your competitors are going to make a move to be competitive, then you have two options: Make the move they refuse to and assume the role of Goliath. Or trade the dominant position for financial flexibility and manage a relatively competitive team with a fair shot. Everyone has chosen option 2.
Let’s not lie. This ice cold offseason isn’t the disease, it’s not an isolated event, it’s not going away. This is an inevitable symptom of the decade-long Rays-ification of baseball. Teams no longer have to be the best. If you’re just good enough, you have a shot at glory and more importantly a shot as monetary savings. And while the uncertainty of the pandemic looms over 2021 and may potentially be responsible for reduced spend, that effect is only an amplifying factor of the consensus MO from front offices. All other indicators: the trade market, the free agent market, the non-tender market, etc., point toward cost-cutting.
We’ve gone from the era of Moneyball to the era of Pennyball. And while we slowly approach a likely-delayed Spring Training, the doldrums of the offseason will continue. Teams have signaled and will continue to signal that they can win without paying top-talent top-dollars. And in a world where the NBA is a year-long storyline with season, post-season, and offseason dramas captivating the audience, MLB cannot survive if it continues to measure success by the volume the dollars saved. This offseason is unexciting when we celebrate savings over signings. The season is worse when the best players aren’t on the best teams. But really, if owners pockets are fat and the team is decent: who cares, right?